Quantitative finance continues to debate the reliability and limits of model-driven investment strategies. Read more here.

From Plato’s search for hidden forms to Bernoulli’s law of large numbers and Markov’s breakthrough on dependent events, this story traces how mathematicians discovered the patterns hidden inside ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Objective probability estimates the odds of an event occurring through data analysis. It uses concrete measures instead of guesses to provide a reliable forecast.

Fortunately, though, we need not put ABS analysis on the back burner. We’ve got a whole season’s worth of data to explore. Just not at the MLB level. ABS was in play in AAA last season, and so we’ve ...

The data is clear: teams with an xG advantage do not win every time. xG can reflect the quality of chances created, but it cannot convert those chances into goals. To use xG correctly, you need to ...

Humans and AIs have different methods of calculating words about probability like ‘maybe’ and ‘likely’ – and different interpretations about what they mean.

Google rolled out a brand new experimental AI tool last Thursday called Project Genie. By Friday, video game stocks were tumbling as a result. Gaming industry giants like Unity Software, Roblox, ...

“There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns—things we do not yet realize we do not know.”—Donald Rumsfeld (2002) While modern machine learning (ML) ...

The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

A few days ago, Google finally explained why its best AI image generation model is called Nano Banana, confirming speculation that the moniker was just a placeholder that stuck after the model went ...

Statistical models predict stock trends using historical data and mathematical equations. Common statistical models include regression, time series, and risk assessment tools. Effective use depends on ...